My ssrn page (here)
Peer Reviewed Publications
”Impulsive Consumption and Financial Wellbeing: Evidence from an Increase in the Availability of Alcohol”, Coauthor: Itzhak Ben-David. Forthcoming, Review of Financial Studies Abstract
Increased availability of alcohol might harm individuals if they have time-inconsistent preferences and consume more than planned before. We study this idea by examining the credit behavior of low-income households around the expansion of the opening hours of retail liquor stores during a nationwide experiment in Sweden. Consistent with store closures serve as commitment devices, expanded operating hours led to higher alcohol consumption and greater consumer credit demand, default, and negative consequences in the labor market. Our calculation shows that the effects of alcohol consumption on indebtedness could amount to 3.2 times the expenditure on alcohol.
”Financial Distress and Suicide over the Lifecycle for Individuals with ADHD: A Population Study”, Coauthors: Theodore P. Beauchaine and Itzhak Ben-David. Forthcoming, Science advances Abstract
Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) exerts lifelong functional impairment, including difficulty maintaining employment, poor credit, and suicide risk. To date, however, most studies have assessed highly-selected samples, often via self-reports. Using mental health data collected from the full Swedish population (N=11.44 million) between 2002-2015 and a random sample of credit bureau data (N=189,267), we provide the first study of financial and suicide outcomes among adults with ADHD. Adjusting for education and income, those with ADHD start adulthood with normal credit demand. However, their default rates grow exponentially into middle age, resulting in diminished access to credit despite high demand. Those with ADHD who suffer marked financial distress show a fourfold higher suicide rate than others with the disorder. Prescription medication use is unassociated with improved financial behaviors.
”The Labor Market Effects of Credit Market Information”, Review of Financial Studies, June 2018, 31(6), 2005-2037, Editor’s Choice, Michael J. Brennan Best Paper Award 2019, Coauthors: Emily Breza and Andres Liberman. Abstract
We exploit a natural experiment to provide one of the first measurements of the causal effect of negative credit information on employment and earnings. We estimate that one additional year of negative credit information reduces employment by 3 percentage points and wage earnings by $1,000. In comparison, the decrease in credit is only one-fourth as large. Negative credit information also causes an increase in self-employment and a decrease in mobility. Further evidence suggests this cost of default is inefficiently borne by those most creditworthy among previous defaulters.
“Bad Times, Good Credit”, Swedish House of Finance Research Paper No 15-05 Coauthors Bo Becker and Kasper Roszbach, Forthcoming, Journal of Money Banking and Credit Abstract
Banks’ limited knowledge about borrowers’ creditworthiness constitutes an important friction in credit markets. Is this friction deeper in recessions, thereby contributing to cyclical swings in credit, or is the depth of the friction reduced, as bad times reveal information about firm quality? We test these alternative hypotheses using internal ratings data from a large Swedish cross-border bank and credit scores from a credit bureau. The ability to classify corporate borrowers by credit quality is greater during bad times and worse during good times Soft and hard information measures both display countercyclical patterns. Our results suggest that information frictions in corporate credit markets are intrinsically counter-cyclical and not due to cyclical variation in monitoring effort.
“Are We Overdiagnosing Mental Ilness? Evidence from Randomly Assigned Doctors”, Coauthors: Andrew Hertzberg and Andres Liberman (Working Paper coming out June, 2020) Abstract
We estimate the causal effects of a mental illness diagnosis at age 18 on health and economic outcomes for individuals at the margin of a diagnosis. For identification we exploit the diagnosis tendencies of quasi-randomly assigned doctors to military conscription in Sweden from 1986 to 2001. We find that a mental illness diagnosis increases the chance of a future diagnosis of mental illness, and death by suicide. The diagnosis also reduces educational attainment, employment, income and wealth accumulation. Lastly we find evidence that it increases financial distress and indebtedness. Little of these negative effects can be attributed to not serving in the military. Our findings are consistent with potential over-diagnosis of mental illnesses.
”Scarcity and Consumers’ Credit Choice”, Swedish House of Finance Research Paper No. 16-19, 2016, Coauthors: Chloe Le Coq and Peter van Santen. Abstract
This paper documents that high-educated borrowers choose lower loan to value ratios when their budget constraints are exogenously tighter. In contrast, low-educated borrowers do not respond to temporary elevated levels of scarcity. This lack of response translates into a significantly higher probability to default and an 11.6 percent increase in borrowing cost. We show that a difference in access to liquidity and/or buffer stocks cannot explain our results. Instead a framework where the awareness of self-control problems is positively correlated with education explains why high-educated, but not low-educated, consumers choose a lower LTV as a commitment device. Our findings highlight that increased levels of scarcity risk reinforcing the conditions of poverty.
“Should Defaults Be Forgotten? Evidence from Variation in Removal of Negative Consumer Credit Information”, FRB of Philadelphia Working Paper No. 14-21, Coauthor Leonard Nakamura. Abstract
The practice of penalizing consumers long after they have paid off their debts continues to spark a debate on the length of time that defaults are retained in individuals credit records. By exploiting a natural experiment that generated exogenous variation in retention times, we analyze what happens when retention times are reduced. We find that the loss of information led banks to tighten their lending standards significantly. However as the number of individuals in the economy with clean records increased due to the reduction in retention time, net access to credit in the economy improved. Furthermore as a borrower’s incentive to exert more effort increases, overall default risk in the economy decreased. We cannot rule out that this reduction in retention time is optimal.
”Impact of a Decrease on Credit Bureaus’ Memory on the Borrowing Behavior of Firms and Lenders” , Coauthors: Paola Morales and Kasper Roszbach.
Work in Progress
”The Impact of Corporate Structure on Employees’ Wellbeing”, Coauthor Laurent Bach
“The Price of Love”, Coauthors Jenny Säve-Söderberh and Wenli Li
”ADHD, Time Preferences and Financial decisions”, Coauthor: Itzhak Ben-David
”Ingredients, Health and Economic Outcomes: Machine Learning of Grocery Choice”. Coauthors: Adair Morse, Sara Rosengren, Annette Vissing-Jorgensen.
”Rationality in the Consumer Credit Market: Choosing between Alternative and Mainstream Credit”, joined with Sumit Agarwal. In Handbook of US Consumer Economics, eds. Andrew Haughwout and Benjamin Mandel, New York, USA, Academic Press, August 2019, ISBN 9780128135242
“Balancing Act: New Evidence and a Discussion of the Theory on the Rationality and Behavioral Anomalies of Choice in Credit Markets,” joined with Susan Payne Carter and Paige Marta Skiba. In Research Handbook in Behavioral Law and Economics, eds., Joshua C. Teitelbaum and Kathryn Zeiler. London, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2018. ISBN: 978 1 84980 567 4
”Do Households Need Protection? Insights from Behavioral Economics“, in ”Den svenska skulden”. Konjunkturrådets rapport 2015, Peter Englund, Bo Becker, Torbjörn Becker, Marieke Bos, Per Wissén ISBN 978-91-86949-65-5
“Hidden Markets: The Importance of Pawnbroking, Vanderbilt Law and Economics Research Paper No. 12-26, Coauthors: Susan P. Carter and Paige M. Skiba (Forthcoming)
”Online Intermediation and the Terms of Consumer Credit”, Sveriges riksbank economic review 2014:1, joined with Gustav Alfelt and Kasper Roszbach
“Essays on Household Finance”, November 2010, Stockholm University, ISBN: 978-91-7447-160-1. Opponent: Professor Luigi Guiso EIEF; examination committee Professor Paolo Sodini, Astrid Muren and Sten Åke Stenberg.